The State of Football: Week 12
Roger Brown
nhfootballreport.com
Back in 2008 Bishop Guertin handed Exeter a 45-9 loss --- Exeter's worst home loss since it began playing at Bill Ball Stadium -- during the regular season's final weekend. Two weeks later the Blue Hawks nearly upset BG (14-7) in the Division II championship game.
Could a similar situation unfold Saturday, when top-seeded Pinkerton (10-1, 9-0) meets second-seeded Exeter (10-1, 8-1) in the Division I championship game? Exeter left plenty of room for improvement when it suffered a 42-16 home loss against Pinkerton during the regular season.
Manchester Memorial High School football coach Peter Colcord was in attendance the night Pinkerton Academy handed Exeter a 42-16 setback earlier this season.
"I think Exeter has a good chance to win," Manchester Memorial coac Peter Colcord said. "I don't see it as a game that will be decided by more than one touchdown either way.
"Halfway through the season I wouldn't have said that. Earlier in the year I wouldn't have given Exeter much of a chance, but they're a different team than when we played them [Oct. 1]. I think it's gonna be a tight game."
Pinkerton ran for 453 yards in that first meeting with Exeter. The Astros ran three plays in the second quarter and scored on all three.
"They were not prepared for the speed of Emmitt Smith and Kevin Davies," Pinkerton coach Brian O'Reilly said. "Our guys were gone as soon as they got the corner."
Smith ran for 289 yards and three touchdowns on eight carries that night. Davies added 114 yards and three touchdowns on seven carries.
"They just gashed us," Exeter coach Bill Ball said. "We just got blindsided. Let's face it, you miss against those guys and they're gone.
"I'm not so sure how good we were [defensively] before that date. It'll be interesting to find out - and we'll find out. I think we're playing with a little bit more confidence. I'm sure I can put us in better spots to defend them, and that'll be the key."
The consensus among Division I coaches seems to be this: Pinkerton is the clear favorite, but the game will be close and the Blue Hawks have a realistic shot at an upset.
"Obviously Pinkerton is the favorite, especially because of what happened in the first game," Concord coach Eric Brown said. "I'm sure Brian is doing things to make sure his team isn't overconfident.
"What we tried to do against Pinkerton [in a 25-7 loss] is do all we could physically from keeping Emmitt Smith, Davies and [Manny] Lattimore from getting the corner. We wanted to make sure they cut back into our pursuit."
"The thing that impressed me about Pinkerton is their defensive backs fly to the football," Brown said. "Exeter, because of the nature of their offense, they can catch people overpursuing. They could surprise them with a pass over the top, and that could be the big play Exeter is looking for.
"I think it's gonna be close - one touchdown, maybe two at the most. If they don't give up those big plays early Exeter has a chance."
Pinkerton will be playing in the Division I championship game for the seventh time in the last eight years. Pinkerton won last year's title by beating Nashua North, 14-7. The Astros have won four of the last six championships.
Exeter was winless against Division I competition last season, it's first in Division I, but is playing in a championship game for the 12th time in the last 16 years. Eleven of those championship game appearances came when the Blue Hawks competed in Division II.
The Pinkerton-Exeter contest is one of three championship games that will be played Saturday. Second-seeded Dover will meet top-seeded Bishop Guertin in the Division II championship game, and fourth-seeded Portsmouth will face second-seeded Bedford in the Division III title games.
Nashua North coach Jason Robie said they key to an Exeter victory is minimizing Pinkerton's big plays.
"When Pinkerton scores in two or three plays - that's when it can get out of hand," Robie said. "I saw both games against Nashua South, and Exeter has gotten much better. In the playoff game against South they looked like the complete package. I was very impressed, especially with their defense.
"Pinkerton's had success against Salem over the years, so they've proven they can handle [Exeter's] style of offense. I think it'll be a different game than the first time. I think it'll be low scoring.
"If Exeter wins it'll be because they were able to neutralize the speed of Pinkerton and grind things out on offense. I wouldn't say they're a huge favorite, but I think you have to go with Pinkerton right now.
"We're left with the two best teams in the division, and that's how it should be."
At any rate, with the utmost confidence ... this week's selections:
DIVISION I CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Pinkerton 20
Exeter 13
Expect this to be anybody's game entering the fourth quarter. Many are focused on how well Exeter can contain Pinkerton's offense, but the key matchup may be Exeter's offense against the Pinkerton defense.
DIVISION II CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Dover 13
Bishop Guertin 7
Big plays carried BG to victory the first time these teams met. This time the game will be decided by defense.
DIVISION III CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Portsmouth 28
Bedford 14
Clippers become the first No. 4 seed to win a state title since Laconia in 1999.
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Last week: 9-0
Record to date: 229-53
Roger Brown covers high school and college football in the Northeast for ESPN/Scouts Inc. His column, The State of Football, appears each Friday throughout the season.
